Happy Holidays and Predictions for 2013

My big prediction for 2013 is that immigration won’t be the big post-cliff issue. It will still be budgets. Cutting a short-term deal in December makes only a small dent in the looming fiscal catastrophe. To actually address the problem, you have to do tax reform and Medicare reform. You have to think outside the 10-year budget window and start to make the changes that will lead to debt levels in 2030 that are in fact level. If you don’t make these changes now, they become impossible later on.

I predict the Supreme Court will toss out the Defense of Marriage Act. Although possibly by throwing the gay marriage issue back to the states. The fact that they decided to consider both the federal law and a lower court ruling about California makes me suspect they’ll say it’s up to the states to make the rules for marriage, but in the states where gay marriage is legal, the partners are eligible for federal spousal benefits.

It’s hardware’s time to shine. Production costs are coming down, crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter are providing funding and fast customer feedback, and consumer demand will only be increasing. The Pebble watch and other similar products will make 2013 the year you’ll see people checking a watch, necklace, or pair of glasses rather than whipping out their phone constantly.

Google [is going get] its mojo back. Facebook is tired and nosy, Apple is Steve-less, Microsoft is Microsoft, and Amazon is the only other game in town. Google’s efforts in email, video, smartphones, maps, and driverless cars open up new long-term expansion paths, with more to follow. With all its many failures, the company has proven it can find and plough new turf. In terms of creativity, Google becomes the next Apple. Now it must learn about product support or risk losing it all to competitors.

The coming year will feature a surge in evidence-based journalism. In 2013, journalists will start seriously doing math. This isn’t just about the embarrassments of the 2012 election campaign, when so many top media pundits — not just politicians — went with their gut instead of the numbers and looked like idiots on Election Day. Nate Silver’s solid statistical analyses demonstrated more than the value of numbers, however. This was about evidence.

There’s no such thing as standing still when it comes to avoiding data breaches and ensuring data privacy standards are upheld. If you’re not moving forward then you’re falling behind. 2013 looks set to be another big year for data security. No doubt new threats will rear their head, but it’s not all doom and gloom. If individuals and organisations wise up to the job at hand and take responsibility for data protection and privacy, using the tools that are already out there to help them, then they will stand a far stronger chance of winning the war and keeping their slate clean of any data breaches.